srini.presents · for curious grown-upsPre Open

Nifty Chronicles

Party in New York, a wake-up call at sea

Wall Street’s chip stocks lit up the night sky. The Crude Kraken surfaced again. And India’s inflation number lands at 4 pm, after the closing bell. Will the Captain keep his powder dry until then?

Session · Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 9:15 amData to 3:25 am IST

← Catch up first: read last evening’s Post Market, when the Captain floated up to 25,424 and landed at 25,255.

How did the call do?

Wednesday’s call: held ✅ FACT

The call was “gap-up, then a tug-of-war above 25,140”, and we said we were wrong if the Nifty closed below 25,140. It opened at 25,338, peaked at 25,424 and closed at 25,255: above the line and below its morning best. [1]

Honesty note: that call was in the format sample, which was built after the session had started. Today’s call is the first one written fully before the bell.

Last night’s homework, answered

Did Wall Street keep wobbling? No. It bounced: the Nasdaq jumped about 400 points on a chip-stock rally. [4]
Did oil stay near two-month lows? Not quite. Brent climbed back to about $93 after fresh attacks on ships near Hormuz. [6]
Will India’s inflation number make traders cautious? It is out at 4 pm today, half an hour after the close, with forecasts near 6%. So today’s whole session trades before it. [9] [10]

Where we left the Captain

25,255

Wednesday close · up 210 pts

25,095–25,424

Wednesday’s range

+₹12,563 cr

Foreign investors, Wed (provisional)

−₹8,435 cr

Domestic funds, Wed (provisional)

Wednesday’s flow figures arrived after last evening’s Post Market went out. Foreigners bought again; Indian funds sold into the rally. FACT [1] [2] [3]

The night shift

By 2:30 pm

Wed · Fed talk

Another hawk at the window

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation has “shown recent signs of broadening” and hinted more rate hikes may be needed. Futures traders now see a December hike as very likely. FACT [5]

Wall Street WipeoutHigher rates are coming! …Right after I buy some chip stocks.

All night

Wed · bonds

The bond market takes a day off

US stocks traded as usual, but the US bond market was shut for Veterans Day. So the 10-year yield stays parked where Tuesday’s jump left it: right near 5%. FACT [4]

8:00 pm

Wed · US open

The chip rocket lifts off

AI cloud firm CoreWeave raised its sales outlook late on Tuesday, and chipmakers rebounded hard. Nvidia gained about 3% and memory makers jumped more than 10%. FACT [4]

~1:00 am

Thu · oil settles

The Kraken surfaces again

Brent settled at about $93, up about $1, and US crude near $87. Fresh attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran saying it will keep its enriched nuclear material, cooled hopes of a quick peace. FACT [6]

Crude KrakenMiss me? I only shrank for two days.

2:30 am

Thu · US close

Wall Street wins the night

+255

Dow · 52,486

+98

S&P 500 · 7,619

+400

Nasdaq · 25,466

Tuesday’s dip was more than undone, and the US fear gauge fell about 10%. Gold slipped about 1% as rate-hike bets stayed high. FACT [4]

3:00 am

Thu · GIFT City

GIFT Nifty: the quiet messenger

GIFT Nifty is a futures price traded in GIFT City. It shows the mood, not the exact open. Its night session closed at 2:45 am, but that closing quote was not yet available at cutoff. The last quote we could verify was about 25,191 at 6:22 pm on Wednesday, before Wall Street’s rally, and slightly lower on the day. Asian markets open from 5:30 am. FACT [8]

Captain Nifty*stretch* Party in New York, monster in the sea… So what’s waiting for me at 9:15?

The overnight scoreboard

7,619

S&P 500 · up 98

≈ 5%

US 10-year yield · bonds shut Wed

$93

Brent · up about $1

$3,991

Gold futures · down $39

≈ 94

Rupee per dollar · best since April

25,191

GIFT Nifty · 6:22 pm Wed

Green helps the Captain, red hurts him. Rounded for easy reading. The rupee closed Wednesday near 94, its strongest finish since April. [4] [6] [7] [8]

Today’s map

25,587Second ceilingCalculated resistance (R2)

25,424Wednesday’s highObserved

25,421First ceilingCalculated R1, almost exactly Wednesday’s high

25,258Balance pointCalculated pivot

25,255Where he went to sleepWednesday’s close

25,095Wednesday’s lowObserved

25,092First floorCalculated support (S1)

24,929Second floorCalculated support (S2)

How to read the map ESTIMATE

The ceilings and floors come from Wednesday’s official high, low and close, using the classic pivot formula. Today the maths lines up neatly with real life: the first ceiling sits on Wednesday’s high, and the first floor sits on Wednesday’s low.

He went to sleep right on the balance point. Ceiling and floor are both one long step away.

Pivots from Wednesday’s high, low and close. [1]

Today’s calendar

9:15 am

The bell

Can the chip-led cheer from New York outweigh dearer oil? Watch IT shares, which lagged on Wednesday, and the banks that led. [4]

All day

Kraken and rupee

Brent is back near $93 and Hormuz headlines are moving it. The rupee’s best finish since April is a cushion, if it holds. [6] [7]

4:00 pm

India’s inflation

October CPI, with forecasts near 6%, the top of the RBI’s comfort band. September was about five and a half percent, the year’s highest so far. It lands after the close, so the market reacts on Friday. [9] [10] [11]

Our call for today

OPINION

A careful day inside Wednesday’s walls

The Captain spends the day between 25,095 and 25,424, Wednesday’s low and high. Wall Street’s bounce and foreign buying hold the floor; dearer oil and the 4 pm inflation number keep a lid on the ceiling. He ends the day close to his balance point near 25,258.

Why: Overnight news pulled both ways: US chips up, oil up, rate-hike bets up. With India’s CPI due half an hour after the close, few traders will want a big bet before it. After an eight-session sprint, a pause is the natural move.
What pushes against it: Foreign investors bought over ₹12,500 crore on Wednesday alone. Another wave like that could punch through the ceiling.
What changed since last evening: Little. The Post Market verdict was “a breather is more likely than a sprint”. Wall Street’s rally softens that a little; oil’s bounce firms it up.
We are wrong if: The Nifty closes above 25,424 (a breakout) or below 25,095 (a slide). Either would mean the market didn’t wait for the inflation number.

TODAY 4 PM

Next up: Post Market, 4 pm. Did the Captain stay inside the walls? Find out what really happened on Dalal Street, just as the inflation number lands. srinipresents.com/nifty

The fine print

Pre Open edition for Thursday 12 Nov 2026, written from data published by 3:25 am IST. Figures are rounded to whole numbers for easy reading. US times are converted to IST using US winter time (US cash close = 2:30 am IST). The 10-year yield is Tuesday’s last reading because the US bond market was closed on Wednesday. Gold is the December futures contract near the US close. Not yet available at cutoff: GIFT Nifty’s 2:45 am night-session close, early Asian trade (from 5:30 am IST) and a verified European close. Foreign and domestic flow figures are provisional. The cover is an original drawing in the series style.

For information and education only. Not personal financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or a trading signal.